Seed Madness

2012 Conference Tournament Schedule
Conference	Date	Place	Winner
Atlantic 10	3/11/2012	Atlantic City, NJ	St. Bonaventure
ACC	3/11/2012	Atlanta, GA	Florida St.
America East	3/10/2012	Highest Seed	Vermont
Atlantic Sun	3/3/2012	Macon, GA	Belmont
Big Ten	3/11/2012	Indianapolis, IN	Michigan St.
Big 12	3/10/2012	Kansas City, MO	Missouri
Big East	3/10/2012	New York, NY	Louisville
Big Sky	3/7/2012	Season Champ	Montana
Big South	3/3/2012	Highest Seed	NC Asheville
Big West	3/10/2012	Anaheim, CA	Long Beach St.
Colonial	3/5/2012	Richmond, VA	Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA	3/10/2012	Memphis, TN	Memphis
Horizon	3/6/2012	Highest Seed	Detroit
Ivy League			Harvard
MAAC	3/5/2012	Springfield, MA	Loyola MD
Mid-American	3/10/2012	Cleveland, OH	Ohio
MEAC	3/10/2012	Winston-Salem, NC	Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley	3/4/2012	St. Louis, MO	Creighton
Mountain West	3/10/2012	Las Vegas, NV	New Mexico
Northeast	3/7/2012	Highest Seed	Long Island
Ohio Valley	3/3/2012	Nashville, TN	Murray St.
Pac 12	3/10/2012	Los Angeles, CA	Colorado
Patriot	3/7/2012	Highest Seed	Lehigh
Sun Belt	3/6/2012	Hot Springs, AR	Western Kentucky
Southern	3/5/2012	Asheville, NC	Davidson
SEC	3/11/2012	New Orleans, LA	Vanderbilt
Southland	3/10/2012	Katy, TX	Lamar
Summit	3/6/2012	Sioux Falls, SD	South Dakota St.
SWAC	3/10/2012	Garland, TX	Mississippi Valley St.
WAC	3/10/2012	Las Vegas, NV	New Mexico St.
West Coast	3/5/2012	Las Vegas, NV	St. Mary's

Hot Links

Ken Pomeroy for the scores of all games between 2002 and 2012 as without this valuable information this site would not be possible.
Website: http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Scores: http://kenpom.com/cbbga12.txt

Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University for their website DanceCard. Their findings inspired the idea to expand on their thinking by developing a probability formula and computerized seeding process.
Website: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The NCAA for providing the Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket (pdf) which was followed as closely as possible to establish computerized criteria to select and seed teams.
Website: http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-baskbl/champpage/m-baskbl-div1-index.html
(pdf): http://www.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/files/BracketPrin-Proc10-5-10.pdf

Jerry P. Palm for providing the official RPI formula. The computer for Seed Madness calculates its own RPI using the formula provided. This calculation comes as close as possible to the official calculation but does not provide a perfect match to the official RPI numbers due to rounding and decimal placement cut offs. The resulting in house RPI does come close enough to make accurate predictions.
Website: http://collegerpi.com/

Other sites of interest

Bracket Science™ is a site dedicated to helping millions of fans fill out their bracket pools every year. It's got almost every statistic possible covering all the NCAA tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Bracket Science™ was created by Pete Tiernan and contains a myriad of information and contests.
Website: http://www.bracketscience.com/

ESPN Bracketology with Joe Lunardi. Joe Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN. In fact, he invented Bracketology and has been projecting the NCAA Tournament field for ESPN.com since its inception.
Website: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

The Bracket Project - The 2012 Bracket Matrix. A Look at the Projected 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket. The Matrix tracks other brackets all across the web -- updated everyday.
Website: http://bracketproject.50webs.com/

warrennolan.com Real time updates of scores and statistics including RPI and SOS. Lots of predictions included.
Website: http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/index

Tournament Selection Criteria Highs and Lows 2003 - 2012

RPI	RPI	Major Conference	Year	RPI	Mid-Major Conference	Year
Highest RPI team selected	68*	Southern California	2011	56	Air Force	2004
Lowest RPI team not selected	37	Florida St.	2007	21	Missouri St.	2006

Overall Record	Pct	Major Conference	Year	Pct	Mid-Major Conference	Year
Worst Pct. team selected	0.563	Michigan St. (18-14)	2011	0.625	Richmond (20-12)	2004
Best Pct. team not selected	0.742	Virginia Tech (23-8)	2010	0.889	Utah St. (24-3)	2004

Conference Record	Pct	Major Conference	Year	Pct	Mid-Major Conference	Year
Worst Pct. team selected	0.438	Numerous (7-9)		0.563	Saint Joseph's (9-7)	2008
Best Pct. team not selected	0.778	Washington (14-4)	2012	0.944	Oral Roberts (17-1)	2012

Quality Win Index	Idx	Team	Year
Best index team not selected	11	Penn St.	2009
	11	Georgia	2004

Top 50 Wins	Wins	Team	Year
Most Top 50 wins team not selected	6	Numerous

Top 50 Win Percent	Pct	Team	Year
Best Pct. team not selected	0.625	Mississippi	2008

* The highest ever RPI team selected was New Mexico with a 74 RPI in 1999.

Bubble Watch

The Bubble Watch lists all teams determined "on the bubble" for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. There are 6 categories used to calculate the chances for each team. Those 6 categories are 1) Win/Loss Percent. 2) Conference Win/Loss Percent. 3) RPI Rank. 4) Out of Conference SOS. 5) Top 50 Win/Loss Percent. 6) Quality Wins. The 6 categories above were discovered to give the most consistent results to determine the 68 teams the selection committee choose for the tournament field. This calculation is based on a 10 year (2002-2011) research of data and information.

What To Look For In 2013

Quality Record Index. Most of the work for 2013 has gone into the QRI. We will add this to the RPI page with a full explanation of how it works. Early results show its much more accurate than RPI when ranking teams and, when used with other factors, improves the overall prediction of the seedings.

Page Design. Not too much has been done but improvements have been added nonetheless. These changes are strictly for readability purposes.

Look for more improvements to be added during the course of the 2013 season. See you on December 1st!


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