Seed Madness is a comprehensive computerized compilation of information used to predict the 68 teams and their seedings for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Using game results for a particular year, Seed Madness creates 3 tables of information. 1) The Bubble Watch - a list of teams competing for those precious few remaining spots available for selection. 2) The Top 68 - a list of the expected 68 teams and their ranking. 3) The Seedings - the predicted seedings and regions each team is expected to receive from the committee. *** LIVE UPDATES ***
Countdown to December 1
Games through 3/11/2012 at 4:27:21 PM CDT
Rank
Team
Over
Rec
Conf
Conf
Rec
L 10
Rec
T 50
Rec
W/L
Str
RPI
OOC
SOS
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
2012 Conference Tournament Schedule
Conference Date Place Winner
Atlantic 10 3/11/2012 Atlantic City, NJ St. Bonaventure
ACC 3/11/2012 Atlanta, GA Florida St.
America East 3/10/2012 Highest Seed Vermont
Atlantic Sun 3/3/2012 Macon, GA Belmont
Big Ten 3/11/2012 Indianapolis, IN Michigan St.
Big 12 3/10/2012 Kansas City, MO Missouri
Big East 3/10/2012 New York, NY Louisville
Big Sky 3/7/2012 Season Champ Montana
Big South 3/3/2012 Highest Seed NC Asheville
Big West 3/10/2012 Anaheim, CA Long Beach St.
Colonial 3/5/2012 Richmond, VA Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA 3/10/2012 Memphis, TN Memphis
Horizon 3/6/2012 Highest Seed Detroit
Ivy League     Harvard
MAAC 3/5/2012 Springfield, MA Loyola MD
Mid-American 3/10/2012 Cleveland, OH Ohio
MEAC 3/10/2012 Winston-Salem, NC Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley 3/4/2012 St. Louis, MO Creighton
Mountain West 3/10/2012 Las Vegas, NV New Mexico
Northeast 3/7/2012 Highest Seed Long Island
Ohio Valley 3/3/2012 Nashville, TN Murray St.
Pac 12 3/10/2012 Los Angeles, CA Colorado
Patriot 3/7/2012 Highest Seed Lehigh
Sun Belt 3/6/2012 Hot Springs, AR Western Kentucky
Southern 3/5/2012 Asheville, NC Davidson
SEC 3/11/2012 New Orleans, LA Vanderbilt
Southland 3/10/2012 Katy, TX Lamar
Summit 3/6/2012 Sioux Falls, SD South Dakota St.
SWAC 3/10/2012 Garland, TX Mississippi Valley St.
WAC 3/10/2012 Las Vegas, NV New Mexico St.
West Coast 3/5/2012 Las Vegas, NV St. Mary's

Hot Links

Ken Pomeroy for the scores of all games between 2002 and 2012 as without this valuable information this site would not be possible.
Website: http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Scores: http://kenpom.com/cbbga12.txt

Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University for their website DanceCard. Their findings inspired the idea to expand on their thinking by developing a probability formula and computerized seeding process.
Website: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The NCAA for providing the Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket (pdf) which was followed as closely as possible to establish computerized criteria to select and seed teams.
Website: http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-baskbl/champpage/m-baskbl-div1-index.html
(pdf): http://www.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/files/BracketPrin-Proc10-5-10.pdf

Jerry P. Palm for providing the official RPI formula. The computer for Seed Madness calculates its own RPI using the formula provided. This calculation comes as close as possible to the official calculation but does not provide a perfect match to the official RPI numbers due to rounding and decimal placement cut offs. The resulting in house RPI does come close enough to make accurate predictions.
Website: http://collegerpi.com/

Other sites of interest

Bracket Science™ is a site dedicated to helping millions of fans fill out their bracket pools every year. It's got almost every statistic possible covering all the NCAA tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Bracket Science™ was created by Pete Tiernan and contains a myriad of information and contests.
Website: http://www.bracketscience.com/

ESPN Bracketology with Joe Lunardi. Joe Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN. In fact, he invented Bracketology and has been projecting the NCAA Tournament field for ESPN.com since its inception.
Website: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

The Bracket Project - The 2012 Bracket Matrix. A Look at the Projected 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket. The Matrix tracks other brackets all across the web -- updated everyday.
Website: http://bracketproject.50webs.com/

warrennolan.com Real time updates of scores and statistics including RPI and SOS. Lots of predictions included.
Website: http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/index

* Please note that the seedings above may vary slightly from the official seedings due to an attempt to follow the NCAA's Principles and Procedures concerning conference balance while filling out regions. The actual predicted seed of each team is listed in the Top 68 rankings on the left.
Distance to the Regionals

We are tracking the top seeds and the distance they are from the regional sites. We will take the number 1 team in the nation and put them in the closest site to their campus and proceed to do the same for 2 - 4. Here is how it all looks as of today.

                     
Campus-Regional Miles   Campus-Regional Miles   Campus-Regional Miles   Campus-Regional Miles
Tournament Selection Criteria Highs and Lows 2003 - 2012
 
RPI  
RPI
Major Conference
Year
 
RPI
Mid-Major Conference
Year
Highest RPI team selected  
68*
Southern California
2011
 
56
Air Force
2004
Lowest RPI team not selected  
37
Florida St.
2007
 
21
Missouri St.
2006
 
Overall Record  
Pct
Major Conference
Year
 
Pct
Mid-Major Conference
Year
Worst Pct. team selected  
0.563
Michigan St. (18-14)
2011
 
0.625
Richmond (20-12)
2004
Best Pct. team not selected  
0.742
Virginia Tech (23-8)
2010
 
0.889
Utah St. (24-3)
2004
 
Conference Record  
Pct
Major Conference
Year
 
Pct
Mid-Major Conference
Year
Worst Pct. team selected  
0.438
Numerous (7-9)
 
0.563
Saint Joseph's (9-7)
2008
Best Pct. team not selected  
0.778
Washington (14-4)
2012
 
0.944
Oral Roberts (17-1)
2012
 
Quality Win Index  
Idx
Team
Year
       
Best index team not selected  
11
Penn St.
2009
       
   
11
Georgia
2004
 
Top 50 Wins  
Wins
Team
Year
Most Top 50 wins team not selected  
6
Numerous
 
Top 50 Win Percent  
Pct
Team
Year
Best Pct. team not selected  
0.625
Mississippi
2008

* The highest ever RPI team selected was New Mexico with a 74 RPI in 1999.

Bubble Watch

The Bubble Watch lists all teams determined "on the bubble" for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. There are 6 categories used to calculate the chances for each team. Those 6 categories are 1) Win/Loss Percent. 2) Conference Win/Loss Percent. 3) RPI Rank. 4) Out of Conference SOS. 5) Top 50 Win/Loss Percent. 6) Quality Wins. The 6 categories above were discovered to give the most consistent results to determine the 68 teams the selection committee choose for the tournament field. This calculation is based on a 10 year (2002-2011) research of data and information.

IN/OUT
Team
Overall
Record
Conf
Conf
Record
Last 10
Record
Top 50
Record
W/L
Streak
RPI
OOC
SOS
In The Mix
IN/OUT
Team
Overall
Record
Conf
Conf
Record
Last 10
Record
Top 50
Record
W/L
Streak
RPI
OOC
SOS
Conference RPI Rankings
Rank
Conf
RPI
Bids
Rank
Conf
RPI
Bids
Rank
Conf
RPI
Bids
Last 4 In
 
 
 
First 4 Out
 
 
 

What To Look For In 2013

Quality Record Index. Most of the work for 2013 has gone into the QRI. We will add this to the RPI page with a full explanation of how it works. Early results show its much more accurate than RPI when ranking teams and, when used with other factors, improves the overall prediction of the seedings.

Page Design. Not too much has been done but improvements have been added nonetheless. These changes are strictly for readability purposes.

Look for more improvements to be added during the course of the 2013 season. See you on December 1st!


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